Topic: Exploratory Modeling and Analysis - Developing a Practical Approach

The presentation will describe an FHWA-sponsored project that contributes to our understanding of the impact that the rapid technological evolution is having on the movement of people and goods on the surface transportation system and the applicability of the robust decision making process on transportation by identifying and addressing hurdles in the application of an exploratory analysis to support real-world planning needs. Ultimately, this study will provide a tool for state and regional transportation planning agencies to assess how technological innovations will impact traffic and transit demand on major corridors 20 to 30 years down the road. The tool will illuminate interactions between transportation supply and demand on urban surface transportation system (especially at the corridor level) through exploratory modeling and simulation and gain insights of potential, possible, plausible, probable or preferred futures.

Biography

Marty Milkovits is a Senior Associate in the Travel Demand Forecasting group at Cambridge Systematics. Marty has more than 15 years of professional experience with expertise in estimating, implementing, validating, and calibrating travel demand models, with a special focus on activity-based models. He is currently leading an FHWA-sponsored research project into Exploratory Modeling and Simulation with the goal of incorporating uncertainty into the modeling and planning process. Marty was involved in the early efforts to represent connected and autonomous vehicles (C/AVs) in regional models through work with the Florida DOT. This work included modifying the SERPM 7 ABM to represent changing auto ownership, the increased prevalence of ridesourcing services, and automated vehicles. He is currently working with the Greater Buffalo Niagara Regional Transportation Council (GBNRTC) to conduct a scenario analysis exploring the impact of different autonomous vehicle fleet mixes and shared-mobility services using their trip-based model in support of their LRTP. Marty holds a BA in Philosophy of Mathematics from Colby College, an MS in Computer Science from Rivier College, and an SM in Transportation from Massachusetts Institute of Technology. He is a member of the Transportation Research Board Planning Applications Committee.